I headed to the Mediterranean for vacation. The next day the Russia-Georgia crisis broke out. A crisis atmosphere settled in the black sea. It is now a candidate to be the “most critical” crisis the international community faces since the end of the Cold War and the Collapse of the soviets as far as consequences are concerned. The reason is simple. This “crisis” basically expresses the need for a re-definition of American-Russian relations. That is to say the crisis expands beyond Russia-Georgia and the Black Sea-Caucasus axis.
This is critical for Turkey’s future. In the cold ward era, international system was two-poles, Russia and the United States being the poles, and was based on a thermo-nuclear balance of horror. The system’s analysis was relatively easier. Nation-states were grouped around the poles. The “third world” was then named “gray zone” in which both poles were trying to be the world leader.
Russia made an attempt to crash Georgia by stepping over the concept of “territorial integrity” and announced recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This is said to be its aim to have a “geopolitical control over the transit energy lines”.
That contradicts with “strategic interests” of Turkey and causes a dilemma on Turkish “political choices”. It also makes Turkey a key “interested party” in “the Black Sea crisis”.
The security of Turkey’s “geopolitical importance” and “territorial integrity” in the post-Cold War era was that the country was situated on energy transmission lines between the Central Asia-Caspian Basin and Europe. In other words, it’s being a NATO country and a candidate to the European Union forming an alternative to neutralize the Russian “energy monopoly” in Europe.
The “geopolitical ring” attributing this role to Turkey was Georgia in the Caucasus. However, Turkey depends on Russia in the “energy” subject. 40% of the oil and 60% of the natural gas Turkey consumes are transferred from Russia. 52% of electric power plants are run with Russian natural power gas. Russia also happens to be Turkey’s number 1 partner in trade and tourism.
Because of all this, Turkey is torn between the latest developments, not only between Russia and Georgia but mainly between Russia and U.S. and NATO as well. Even if we do not go back to the Cold War, at the point we have arrived today, Turkey cannot manage this crisis with “platonic moves” such as the “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform”. Perhaps it sounds a bit exaggerated but this point is of critical importance in a way to determine the “future of Turkey’s government”.
Turkey’s Dilemma that I recently had clear understanding…
